Sugar Prices Gain Traction as Brazil’s Cane Yields Drop

Vibaantta
Oct 8
2 min read

Key Takeaways

Sugar futures hit multi-week highs amid lower cane quality in Brazil
Diminished sucrose levels press on supply expectations
India, Thailand’s output growth could offset Brazil’s supply constraints
Mixed global forecasts make market direction uncertain

Sugar Futures Surge on Brazil Yield Concerns

Sugar prices rebounded strongly as futures hit their highest levels in nearly two months.

In New York, sugar contracts rose by +2.06 %, while in London, white sugar closed up +1.51 %.

The rally followed data from Brazil’s Unica showing that the sugar content in cane harvested in the Center-South region declined to 154.58 kg/ton, down from 160.07 kg/ton a year earlier. This drop signals weaker processing yields, constraining overall sugar output potential.

Supply Factors: Brazil, India & Thailand

Brazil: Yield Slump & Production Cuts

Although Brazil’s cane crushing volumes were up, the lower sucrose content means less sugar output in real terms.

To illustrate: while output in early September rose, cumulative sugar volumes in the 2025–26 Brazil season are down slightly year-on-year.

Brazil’s crop agency Conab has also trimmed its production forecast by 3.1%, citing heat and drought stress.

India: Strong Monsoon, Surplus Risk

India’s monsoon rainfall as of September 30 measured 937.2 mm, about 8% above average—its best in five years.

This favorable rain is raising expectations for a sugar output of 34.9 million metric tons (MMT), a 19% increase from 2024–25 levels.

However, a portion of India’s sugar may be diverted to ethanol, which could ease domestic surplus pressures.

Thailand: Moderate Growth in Production

Thailand’s sugar sector is also projected to expand. The 2025–26 season is expected to yield 10.5 MMT, a 5% rise over last year.

As the world’s third-largest sugar producer and a major exporter, Thailand’s output dynamics matter for global supply balances.

Global Forecasts & Price Implications

Forecasts are varied.

The International Sugar Organization (ISO) anticipates a deficit of –231,000 MT in 2025–26.
Conversely, trader Czarnikow projects a surplus of 7.5 MMT, its largest in eight years.
The U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) expects global sugar production to climb ~4.7%, driving ending stocks higher.

What this means for prices:

Brazil’s weakening yields offer upward support
But India and Thailand’s strong crops could cap price rise
Diverging forecasts inject volatility and uncertainty

What to Watch Next

Brazil’s mid-season updates on cane quality and yield outlook
India’s ethanol policy decisions and export strategy
Global demand trends in sugar consumption
Updates from ISO, USDA & Conab on production and stock revisions